The first 2009 Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean

Crossposted
Welcome to the Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean. If you would like your posts included in next Monday's Carnival please email me, faustaw2 "at" gmail "dot" com.

Last week Cuba celebrated the 50th anniversary of its Communist revolution. Please check the posts listed under Cuba below for a roundup of articles and posts.

Tomorrow at 11AM Humberto Fontova will be my podcast guest and he'll talk about the anniversary; in today's podcast I'll touch on Bolivia's new TV station, sponsored by Iran and Venezuela, Argentina's change shortage, and other headlines.



ANTIGUA-BARBUDA
Antigua-Barbuda opposition criticises PM for taking funds from Venezuela

ARGENTINA
Argentina Is Short of Cash – Literally
Spare some change?

Buenos Aires Becomes IT-Wise
Buenos Aires invites ITC businesses to set up in its forthcoming world-class Technology District.

BELIZE
US Southern Command donates equpment to Belize

Equipment valued at US$27,000 was recently handed over to Belize's National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO). Ceremonies were held at NEMO’s Warehouse in Belmopan.

The equipment includes more than 500 folding beds commonly referred to as cots and more than 100 sleeping bags. This most recent donation is from the United States Southern Command, based in Miami.

On hand to make the presentation was United States Ambassador to Belize, Robert Deiter. In making the presentation, Deiter said the US, in assisting in the area of management this year alone, made other donations recently to the Belize Defence Force and the National Coast Guard, in addition to training in several villages across the country.

Deiter stated that he is proud of his Mission’s work with NEMO in a region where disasters can and do strike/

BOLIVIA
Catholics oppose Bolivia control freak government

Morales inaugurará diario y canal del Estado con ayuda de Irán y Venezuela

BRAZIL
The samba beat, with missteps: It may be the rising power in the Americas but Brazil is finding that diplomatic ambition can prompt resentment



Confiança da indústria é a menor desde outubro de 1998, diz FGV Business confidence at its lowest since October 1998, via Market Memorandum

CHILE
Chile, interest rates, inflation, Bachelet and the central bank

COLOMBIA
Colombia mata a un Jefe de Finanzas de las FARC y a sus 4 escoltas Colombia kills FARC finance boss and his 4 bodyguards.

Colombia's Leader Digs In
After U.S.-Backed Successes, Uribe Weighs Extending Reign

Helping the Hostage-Takers: Switzerland and the Reyes Computer Files (English translation)

CUBA
Abused

50 years with Fidel Castro: how many more years of misery for Latin America?

MSM Report Card for stories about 50th Anniversary of Cuban Revolution

Grief Marks Anniversary of Triumph of Castro, via The Corner

Cuban Stalinism at 50--and the Media Lies Continue

Cuba's Long Black Spring: Video

Castro’s Cuba at 50

“It goes without saying”

One hell of an achievement

Shame on U.S. Media for Idolizing Che Guevara

Cuban Stalinism at 50--and the Media Lies Continue

The Cuban revolution at 50: Heroic myth and prosaic failure

Ill winds: Hurricanes have added to the woes of the downturn



Where’s the “patria o muerte”?

WaPo's Booth Hails 'Half-Century of Revolution' in Cuba

Commemorating 50 Lousy Years

Two new films out this month give the full Hollywood treatment to two very different military and political heroes.

Castro's One 'Hell' of an Achievement

In Cuba, Cellphone Calls Go Unanswered
Growing Ranks Use Coveted Device for Less Costly Paging, Texts

Communism, Socialism Paradise, Cuba

Humberto Becerra Alfonso, Cuban Political Prisoner of the Week, 1/4/09

Historia de una jinetera

ECUADOR
Equador determina pagamento de parte da dívida com o BNDES Ecuador paid $28.1 million of its $243 million loan to Brazil’s National Economic and Social Development Bank Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES), while Rafael Correa still says the loan is “illegal.” (h/t Market Memorandum)

MEXICO
In Mexico, Hope Lies With the Voters Leon Krauze’s Segunda Edicion broadcasts today at 2PM Mountain time.

Mexicanas sucumben al “sex appeal” de los narcos

Mexican criminal insurgency may spread to US

NICARAGUA
Nicaragua’s broken democracy

PANAMA
Home invasion in Boquerón

Elogia en La Habana a la revolución cubana Panamanian president Martín Torrijos praises the Cuban revolution in Havana.

PARAGUAY
¿El pueblo del Che Guevara? - por Eduardo Quintana

PERU
Shining Path Terrorists Threaten to Expand Attacks in Peru

PUERTO RICO
Trump development in Puerto Rico to be eco-friendly

Yahoo says Puerto Rico in top ten of world's favourite destinations

ST KITTS-NEVIS
Hanging them high: Don’t bother to reform, just execute

VENEZUELA
An open letter to the critics of the HRW report on Venezuela

2008: the year Hugo Chavez lost his democratic fig leaf

Socialism with cheap oil: Hugo Chávez embarks on a race against the impending impact of world recession

Venezuela halves travelers dollar allowance to $2,500

Chavez After the Oil Boom, also at Caracas Chronicles

The Wizards of Oil: As prices fall, so do the ambitions of Vladimir, Hugo and Mahmoud.

Tras 10 años de Gobierno, se le ocurre “reducir la dependencia del petróleo”

Estos son los nuevos aviones que comprará Hugo Chávez

US POLITICS
Housing Push for Hispanics Spawns Wave of Foreclosures

This week’s podcasts and posts
Denny and “the governor of all Puerto Ricans”
The disaster that is the Cuban revolution
Two photos
At Real Clear World Blog: Venezuela: 2008 in Review
Cuba: A Photograph as Metaphor




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The Colombian hostage rescue: Aftermath

UPDATED WITH VIDEO TRANSLATION
Please scroll down
Yesterday I stated that the hostage rescue by Colombia's military has changed the political landscape in South America. Last Wednesday Investor's Business Daily looked at some of the actors.

It's really early to explore the implications, but here are some of the more immediate:

1. Colombia has undermined the FARC to the point of having it on the run, killing its top leaders, and infiltrating its topmost ranks. At its height, the FARC controlled over 30% of Colombia's territory and terrorized the entire country. Colombia is about to end its decades-long civil war, and the good guys are winning.

While the really hard work is about to start - i.e., ending the stranglehold of the cocaine trade - the victory opens the possibility that that, too, can be attained.

2. The FARC started as the military wing of the pro-Moscow Colombian Communist Party and has remained aligned with Communists in Latin America, including Hugo Chavez.

(Please don't come telling me that Chavez is not a Communist. He declared himself a Communist on January 2007, as this laudatory article at the Guardian states,

"Socialism or death - I swear it," he said last week, and declared himself a communist.)

This is a blow to Communism in Latin America. To use Esteban Lijalad's words, "Today Che died".

3. Appeasement never works, and the only way to defeat terror is through relentless, calculated, strategic, effective force. This carries great implications not only for Colombia and Latin America, but also on the war on terror.

The BBC

The rescue has vindicated Mr Uribe's uncompromising position with respect to negotiating with the Farc and justified his refusal to make concessions in order to gain the release of hostages.

4. Hugo Chavez's dream of heading a Bolivarian empire in Latin America has been dealt a huge blow. The FARC, one of his key allies, is defeated. As Ingrid Betancourt herself said,

"agradezco los esfuerzos de Chavez, pero debe saber que los Colombianos elegimos a Uribe, no a las FARC".
(my translation:) "I appreciate Chavez's efforts, but he should learn that we Colombians elected Uribe, not the FARC."

5. Just as the bad guys get together - as Chavez supports the FARC, Hezbollah, and Iran - the good guys also get together for training and technology: The US has funded the Colombian government's efforts in its war against terror to the tune of $600 million/yr in security and antinarcotics aid (h/t Betsy), and Israel (h/t Atlas) provided training:

The Israeli consultation was focused mainly on intelligence issues, special operations and integration and coordination between different security elements. This was in order to prepare them for a coordinated and productive campaign within a short period of time.

6. However, it can not be emphasized enough that it was the Colombians themselves who actually planned, executed, and succeeded in a months-long operation, and who will continue to do the heavy lifting.

Clarification: To give you an idea of why point #6 is so very important, Simon Romero of the NYT summarizes the situation in one sentence:

The mission would require near perfect execution by a military that only a few years ago could rarely be trusted.

That is a hugely significant development, both in the symbolic sense, and in the strategic implications. It marks a new stage in the history of Latin America.

UPDATE
As to the rumors circulated by Swiss public radio and their unnamed sources, clearly the Swiss should stick to reporting on cuckoo clocks. Daniel casts a jaundinced eye on the Swiss.

UPDATE 2: Translation of Operation Check: Images from Ingrid Betancourt's rescue
Macker sent this video of the rescue, asking that I translate it:


Translation: Please credit me if you use this translation. Thank you.

Operation Check (as in chess): Images from Ingrid Betancourt's rescue
13:23:00 [Voice off camera] "...from this side... hold...hold...backlighting...backlighting..."

13:24:00 [Reporter, now in front of camera, approaching man in long-sleeve t-shirt] "Commander, may I ask you only one question?"
[FARC commander] "No, no, there's a rule and I'd be violating a rule."
[Reporter] "Allow me, only one question. Only one question, yes?"
[FARC commander] "Ask me in the helicopter." (chuckles)
[Reporter] "But it'll be too noisy. Let me ask you a question, so it shows."
[FARC commander] "No, it is..."
[Reporter] "Real easy one, Commander."
[FARC commander] "It's against the rules."
[Reporter] "Commander, one question, please."
[FARC commander, laughing] "No, it'd really be a mistake for me to give a..."

Video cuts him off.

Camera zooms to the hostages: man wearing black t-shirt, Ingrid Betancourt wearing hat, tall man in sleeveless t-shirt & baseball cap.

[Reporter, again off camera, while the tall man's hands are tied] "...of prisoners at the hands of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces [i.e., the FARC]. the people's army. We'll have the chance to talk with the three Americans being held by the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces. On politics, we can't talk about politics. Get closer [to the tall man], get closer."

13:27:30 [Tall man, getting closer to the camera] "Tell my family, my family, the whole world." [gets taken away]
[Reporter] "On politics, we can't broadcast, we can't have the group of prisoners at the hands of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces, we can't..."

13:27:45 [Hostage with mustache, approaching reporter] "Yes, excuse me. I only have one thing to say: I have been chained for ten years. I am Lieutenant Malagon, of the glorious Colombian National Army, [voice breaks] kidnapped for many reasons by this guerilla."

13:28:01 [Reporter] "Words by Lieutenant Malagon. We can't broadcast them directly, we can't quote them but we know the suffering."
[Lt. Malagon] "They should be broadcast, because I have something very important to state...."

Gets cut off.

13:28:29 [Walking to helicopter]

13:29:11 [Lt. Malagon says something, voice drowned by helicopter noise.]

13:29:12 [Reporter] "We understand, but the restrictions, the press is restricted, it's not allowed."

13:29:31-13:31:49 [Sound off]

Once in the helicopter, Betancourt crying, hostages laughing, hugging, thumbs up. Betancourt & other hostage holding each other. Helicopter noise, unintelligible voices.

[Man's voice] "My God, man, thanks."
[Betancourt] "Let's give thanks for this moment."
[Man] "Who do you give thanks to, mother?"

Betancourt shakes her head.

[Man] "I always expected this, always. Ten years waiting! Ten years expecting it!"

Sound gets cut off.
13:38:45 Video ends.

Welcome, Power Line, American Power, Dr Melissa Clouthier, Conservative Syndicate, Irish Spy and Belmont Club readers!

Crossposted



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Chavez Decree Tightens Hold on Intelligence

Having lost last December's referendum - by which he wanted absolute powers - Chavez is resorting to consolidating his power through decrees, all in the name of defeating "the empire", i.e. the United States.

In today's NYT, Simon Romero reports that Chavez Decree Tightens Hold on Intelligence (h/t Siggy)

President Hugo Chavez has used his decree powers to carry out a major overhaul of this country's intelligence agencies, provoking a fierce backlash here from human rights groups and legal scholars who say the measures will force citizens to inform on one another to avoid prison terms.

Under the new intelligence law, which took effect last week, Venezuela's two main intelligence services, the DISIP secret police and the DIM military intelligence agency, will be replaced with new agencies, the General Intelligence Office and General Counterintelligence Office, under the control of Mr. Chavez.

The new law requires people in the country to comply with requests to assist the agencies, secret police or community activist groups loyal to Mr. Chavez. Refusal can result in prison terms of two to four years for most people and four to six years for government employees.

Hugo's new decree is a carbon copy of what the Castro regime has used for oppressing its people for the past half century:

But the new law may also point to the influence of Cuba, Venezuela’s top ally, on intelligence policies. For instance, the use of community-monitoring groups to assist in gathering intelligence resembles Cuba's use of neighborhood Committees for the Defense of the Revolution to report on antigovernment behavior.

One more stepping stone towards Cubazuela.

The BBC reports that

The law allows security forces to gather evidence through surveillance methods such as wiretapping without obtaining a court order, and authorities can withhold evidence from defence lawyers if it is considered to be in the interest of national security.

Of course the Chavistas hasten to reassure the naive that

On Monday, however, [Interior Minister] Mr. Rodríguez Chacín softened his tone, saying the law would not lead to political intimidation or restrict freedom of expression.

The law is so restrictive and volatile that Chavez didn't risk pushing it through the National Assembly, , because

justice officials, including judges, are required to actively collaborate with the intelligence services rather than serve as a check on them.

Now that Chavez has changed the laws yet again, is a Venezuelan Soviet-style Check enforcement in the works next?

UPDATE
Venezuela News and Views: Chavez Decree Tightens Hold on Intelligence

Because make no mistake: this new decree law is worse than the Patriot Act of the US. If I bring up this last remark it is because the Bush administration Patriot Act is perhaps its most controversial legal action, the one that has damaged the most its popularity over the years. Not for me to discuss the virtues and sins of the Patriot Act here: I want to limit myself to note that the Patriot Act was lengthily discussed, had to be voted and exists in a country where considerable safeguards exists. Not to mention that September 11 did take place and that the US is truly under constant terrorist threat. Maybe there were better ways to enhance US security but the Patriot Act is still under the constant monitoring of an independent judicial system and a strong press, thus many abuses have been corrected.

None of this would hold true for Venezuela as the new decree law goes into practice.

In other Hugo news, Hugo Chavez Goes After the Jews Again

And at IBD,
Internal Spying Begins In Venezuela

Intelligence organs will now be split into four groups, to ensure that they operate in a snitching climate of internal fear, unable to unite against him. His interior minister, Ramon Rodriguez Chacin, who on TV last December told FARC terrorists "we are with you," is as thuggish as he appears. He even bears a physical resemblance to Lavrenty Beria, Josef Stalin's feared secret police chief.

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Benicio wins the Cannes' Best Actor award...

...for glorifying a psychopath mass murderer: Benicio Del Toro, 'Latino Brad Pitt', wins Cannes award as 'Che'

"I'd like to dedicate this to the man himself, Che Guevara," said the actor, after accepting his second big award under the US director's helmsmanship.

"I wouldn't be here without Che Guevera, and through all the awards the movie gets you'll have to pay your respects to the man."

As if there was anything to respect about Che Guevara.

The article continues,

Some critics slammed the film shot in Spanish for its length and meticulous documentary-style presentation, as well as for failing to focus on the politically controversial aspects of the Cuban revolution.

Soderbergh needed to tighten it for average movie-goers, they said.

Benicio has his share of the blame for this aberration:

Del Toro, who has a quiet but immensely strong presence, was involved from the start on the "Che" film, which took nine years of research and 60 million dollars to complete.

Too bad he couldn't spare fifteen minutes in the Cuba Archive.

I fully expect Benicio will get an Oscar for this movie. For now, he also got a Come Mierda Of the Week Award

Prior post: Benicio's Che vs reality's Che.



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Benicio's Che vs reality's Che

Maria sent me the link to the NYT's review of the Cannes Film Festival review of the unfinished "saga" on the most romanticized serial murderer in the world, Che. (Erik skipped that one. It was a bore.)

There's a couple of interesting things about this film review:

First, the title of the article: Soderbergh and Che, Provocateurs, which summarizes Soderbergh's intention. Provocateur, being edgy, rhapsodizing about the revolution, and worshipping the idol of the bien pensant around the world. For that he is regarded as

one of the most protean and interesting of American filmmakers, exploring an astonishing range of genres and styles with consistent skill, intelligence and audacity

Protean indeed.
Soderbergh wasn't audacious enough to show the names of the hundreds of people Che personally killed.

Then there's the photo in the article,

Benicio in full Che drag, pistol in hand, being the very picture of the heroic bandido of popular lore.

And third, the reviewer, who gets paid to sit through the "four-and-a-half-hour exploration", at least has the delicacy to mention that

There is a lot, however, that the audience will not learn from this big movie, which has some big problems as well as major virtues. In between the two periods covered in "Che," Guevara was an important player in the Castro government, but his brutal role in turning a revolutionary movement into a dictatorship goes virtually unmentioned. This, along with Benicio Del Toro’s soulful and charismatic performance, allows Mr. Soderbergh to preserve the romantic notion of Guevara as a martyr and an iconic figure, an idealistic champion of the poor and oppressed. By now, though, this image seems at best naïve and incomplete, at worst sentimental and dishonest.

This is bad, not because preserving a romantic image of a mass murderer, but because "it is not very interesting."

Now let's examine the real Che as depicted by another interesting, skilled and intelligent man who I had the pleasure of meeting a few months ago, Carlos Eire. Carlos writes about Che the homophobe:

He thinks about that cruel ritual he has witnessed so many times, when the guards strip all the prisoners naked and parade the most handsome in front of the newly arrived inmates to find out who among them is gay. He thinks about how anyone who gets aroused is taken away for a special mandatory "rehabilitation" program that includes the application of electrical currents to the genitals.

The NYT photo from the movie gives you the impression that Che was heroic in battle, when instead

The "acrid odor of gunpowder and blood" never reached Guevara's nostril from actual combat. It always came from the close-range murder of bound, gagged and blindfolded men. He was a true Chekist: "Always interrogate your prisoners at night," Che commanded his prosecutorial goons. "A man is easier to cow at night, his mental resistance is always lower."

Humberto Fontova writes about Che's specialty:

Che specialized in psychological torture. Many prisoners were yanked out of their cells, bound, blindfolded and stood against The Wall. The seconds ticked off. The condemned could hear the rifle bolts snapping ..... finally – FUEGO!!

BLAM!! But the shots were blanks. In his book, "Tocayo," Cuban freedom fighter Tony Navarro describes how he watched a man returned to his cell after such an ordeal. He'd left bravely, grim-faced as he shook hands with his fellow condemned. He came back mentally shattered, curling up in a corner of the squalid cell for days.

And the NYT article doesn't show the firing squads of Cuban revolution:


No, the NYT writes up an unfinished movie. The same NYT which, to this day, won't bother reviewing Carlos Eire's book Waiting For Snow In Havana, even when the book won the National Book Award.

It's all a matter of priorities.

UPDATE, Monday 26 May
Benicio wins Cannes best actor award...



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How to reach $300/barrel oil

Now that everyone's bellyaching about $135/barrel oil (or whatever record-high price it reaches today), let's review how we got here:

• No new oil refineries in decades
• No nuclear power plants built in the USA since the 1960s
• Severely restrict drilling and exploitation of our own oil resources, while the Chinese drink our milkshake off Florida

The US government is limiting access to our own resources, as Shell's John Hofmeister explained

According to the Department of the Interior, 62 percent of all on-shore federal lands are off limits to oil and gas developments, with restrictions applying to 92 percent of all federal lands. We have an outer continental shelf moratorium on the Atlantic Ocean, an outer continental shelf moratorium on the Pacific Ocean, an outer continental shelf moratorium on the eastern Gulf of Mexico, congressional bans on on-shore oil and gas activities in specific areas of the Rockies and Alaska, and even a congressional ban on doing an analysis of the resource potential for oil and gas in the Atlantic, Pacific and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The Democrat's response: they want Hofmeister to guarantee that prices will not go up again. Top that one with Maxine Water's proposal to nationalize (she couldn't get herself to utter "nationalize", so she stumbled with "socialize") the oil companies. Here's the video.

Up to now, it was absolutely inconceivable to me that a sitting representative would actually threaten - forget about suggesting - to nationalize a whole sector of private industry.

The Democrats are unable to understand that they are handing our own national security over to terror-supporting nations that produce oil; not only by guaranteeing a constant flow of dollars to them, but by granting them the power to manipulate the American economy.

I totally agree with Kim at Wizbang,

Now, if the US government and the Democrats like Ms. Waters were truly interested in erasing the oil companies' record profits and helping the American consumers, then they would be doing everything they could to increase oil and gasoline production so as to saturate the market. The price of oil and gasoline would then drop through the floor. Remember when oil was $8 a barrel and gasoline was a mere $.95? Oil companies were merging left and right because they couldn't stay in business on their own and the price of gas wasn't on the American people's radar. If punishing the oil companies is truly what Democrats like Maxine Waters really want to do, then they would glut the market. They would change the law so that the supply of oil and gasoline vastly outpaced demand and oil and gas prices dropped.

In all their self-serving grandiosity the Democrats want the price oil to continue to rise since it will bring about chaos to a Republican administration.

Socialism has failed everywhere, but to the Dems, if it brings them to power, they are willing to drive us to ruin. The bottom line is this: the more dependent we become on government the less prosperity we will ever enjoy.

As long as they steer the ship of state, expect oil to reach $300/barrel in the future.

UPDATE
... to be left-liberal and Left these days, you have to be ignorant of economics.
More on Maxine via Obi's sister>



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Cuba Solidarity Day

Petition calling for the release of ALL of Cuba's political prisoners

Solidaridad Cuba explains,

The Cuban people need your help! People all over the world are joining together on Cuba Solidarity Day, this May 21, to stand beside the people of Cuba in their struggle for freedom and democracy. Let’s demonstrate our support for Cuba’s political prisoners, respect for the Inter-American Democratic Charter, and the right of the Cuban people to choose their own government and live in peace and freedom! Join us as we speak in one voice to demand peace, freedom, and democracy on the island!

May 21 has great historic significance as it falls within a two-week period in which Cubans throughout the island remember those that have suffered under the Castro regime while struggling for freedom and human rights.

Hosreport

A colombo-americana's perspective


The White House:

We see this courage in a doctor named Oscar Elias Biscet. Dr. Biscet is a healer, a man of peace, and a determined activist for human rights. For all this, Dr. Biscet serves a 25-year sentence under the worst conditions. He was once put into solitary confinement for nearly eight months, trapped in a small, dark, underground cell. He lost nearly 50 pounds and has lost almost all of his teeth. He is in poor health. He is allowed very few visitors.

We see this courage in Cuba's Damas de blanco. Every Sunday, these "Ladies in White" march in silent protest, demanding the release of their loved ones. A few weeks ago, when about a dozen of these women held a peaceful sit-in at a public park, they were dragged from the area by a large pro-regime mob. One of the women was Berta Soler, whose husband, Juan Angel Moya Acosta, is serving a 20-year sentence. Earlier this month, Berta told me personally: "Despite the torture, Cuba's political prisoners will not give in."

Recently, a former political prisoner asked me to remember his brothers languishing in Castro's jails. Through this Day of Solidarity with the Cuban People, we honor that request by speaking the names of Cuba's prisoners of conscience. They include the men I have just mentioned. They include others such as: Ricardo Gonzalez Alfonso, Jose Luis Garcia Paneque, Normando Hernandez, Jorge Luis Gonzalez Tanquero, and Ariel and Guido Sigler Amaya. They include other names that many of you keep in your hearts and in your prayers.

Babalu has YouTubes




Others blogging about it:
Plains Feeder

Brandon's puppy

This Ain't Hell

eThePeople



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Hugo and the Venezuelan Chocolate Factory

To Hugo, Venezuela's a box of chocolates:

Hugo and the Venezuelan Chocolate Factory

Hugo Chavez may have lost the referendum that would have granted him absolute power in Venezuela. But that hasn't stopped him from nationalizing much of the country's economy.

My latest article is up at Pajamas Media. Go read it.



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Hugo needs the money, pronto

When not receiving support from Obama bundler Jodie Evans, Hugo's busy raising his own taxes.

Fist the Evans story, via Larwyn:
Obama Big Money ‘Bundler’ A Hugo Chavez Supporter

Code Pink has been at the forefront of the anti-war movement and has involved itself in many attacks on our members of the military. They’ve even targeted the wounded for their attacks on the war in Iraq. Because of this connection, pro-troop groups are demanding that Obama return the $50,000 that Code Pink operative Evans gathered from her associates to donate to the Obama campaign.

Jammie Wearing Fool has the update on the windfall oil taxes story, which, as I mentioned previously,

The tax will also apply to state oil company PDVSA, which now controls all of Venezuela's oilfields.

Mind you, all foreing oil companies are at least 60% owned by the Venezuelan government.

BUT
there is one exception:
Chavez is giving China 30% of PDVSA's oil operations within the next five years (h/t Venezuela News and Views). After firing the experts on the field and draining PDVSA's accounts, PDVSA's oil production continues to decline, so Chavez is hoping Chinese technology and expertise will help PDVSA meet its daily 1 million barrels quota with China. PDVSA's own goal of 5 million barrels a day has been moved from 2012 to 2015. That's not very likely to happen, since, according to the link, PDVSA has only 72 active drills.

Brazilian oil will, in time, be a huge competitor to Venezuelan oil, but not yet.

The Beeb claims that the "windfall profit" tax

It is President Hugo Chavez's latest attempt to get greater control over his country's oil.

Bloomberg explains that some of the proceeds

would help pay for the nationalization of Luxembourg-based Ternium SA's local steelmaking unit and the Venezuelan subsidiaries of three multinational cement companies.

The Wall Street Journal, however, notices another very important reason (emphasis added):

The windfall tax is also a sign of how eager Mr. Chavez is to get more money ahead of municipal and gubernatorial elections later this year. Venezuelan lawmakers passed the bill just two days after Mr. Chávez told them his government urgently needed the money.

That Bolivarian Revolution doesn't come cheap. The political machinery needs oiling, particularly when it hinges on making the poor entirely dependent on government for water, electricity, public safety and food distribution.

Hugo's also considering making exchange controls more "flexible"

Venezuela, which has pegged the bolivar at 2.15 per dollar since 2005, has sold dollar-denominated bonds in the local market on a weekly basis this year in a bid to meet increased demand for foreign currency. Finance Minister Rafael Isea said April 2 the government will sell dollar bonds later this month directly to importers.

Devaluation soon to follow?



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Venezuela: no money for education, healthcare or food

Alvaro Vargas Llosa, writing at TNR, tells the truth about those social programs the Left has praised so highly in the Bolivarian Republic of Chavismo (emphasis added), starting with the "free health care", which was at the hands of Cuban medics working for $200/month:

The Barrio Adentro mission was originally run by about 30,000 Cuban doctors and medics. Many of those health centers are now closed; the rest are seriously understaffed. "The Cubans are leaving," explains Felix, a social worker from Baruta, "because they don't get paid, because they are the victims of rampant crime or simply because they have moved on--they only offered to serve in Venezuela as an excuse to get out of Cuba." In some cases, the government never provided the funds needed to finish the construction of clinics. In Baruta, a desolate construction site reminds the local neighborhood that there is, as Felix puts it, "a gulf separating reality from speeches." I was not surprised to learn that, according to Andres Bello University, 60 percent of the Barrio Adentro health centers are not functioning.

Food and nutrition:

The Mercal mission, a series of supermarkets in which the poor can theoretically acquire food at extremely low prices, is not faring any better. Because of price controls, essential products are missing from the shelves. People stand in line for hours to buy food or milk. In some cases, as I was told in Petare, producers have been put off by price controls; in others, the people who manage the supermarkets sell essential products under the table to those able to pay more.

The soup kitchens, which supposedly have to serve free meals to 150 Venezuelans in each neighborhood every day, are also falling victim to the chronic shortages. Jesus, a Chavez supporter who manages a soup kitchen in Barrio Union Petare, told me that he would not be serving his neighbors until next week, when he expects to get new provisions. The result? "The squalid ones," he concluded, using the term with which Chavez refers to his critics, "are now a majority around here."

Housing payments:

Corruption has eroded the prestige of the Habitat mission through which the government supposedly dishes out checks to poor Venezuelans so they can buy a house. It is not unusual for an aspiring homeowner to find out that a mystery person has cashed the check using his or her name. "The same people who hand out the checks cash them for the benefit of their relatives," explains Eladio, who told me a nephew recently suffered such an experience.

Subsidizing automobiles (Venezuelans pay cents to the gallon of gasoline) has created huge bottlenecks.

Secondary and higher education are suffering too.

Inflation is running at 30%.

Private property is disappearing.

Populism and governmental intervention in every aspect of the economy is the surest way to bankrupt a country.

Will the readers of The New Republic realize this? Or are we going to hear some more about how Chavez is a-charismatic-leader-helping-the-poor-offering-free-health-care-education-adult-literacy-and-job-training-initiatives-that-help-millions-of-Venezuelans^tm?



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Chinese blogger beaten to death

Via Wretchard, fifty city inspectors beat to death a blogger who filmed their confrontation with villagers protesting over the dumping of waste near their homes:

A scuffle developed when residents tried to prevent trucks from unloading the rubbish, Xinhua said.

When Wei took out his cell phone to record the protest, more than 50 municipal inspectors turned on him, attacking him for five minutes, Xinhua said. Wei was dead on arrival at a Tianmen hospital, the report said.

Now let's look at the next statement:

Qi Zhengjun, chief of the urban administration bureau in the city of Tianmen, lost his job over the incident, Xinhua reported Friday.

Qi fared better than the hapless manager of the lead-toy factory who was put to death, or the toy vendors, who will be severely punished. But then, there's the Olympics coming up and China's working on cleaning up its act.

The BBC has more:

Local people attempted to stop a rubbish truck from dumping refuse at a site that they argued was too close to their village, state media reported.

Members of the Chinese municipal inspectors, known as the Chengguan, intervened.

A para-police force equipped with steel helmets and stab-proof vests, Chengguan personnel are often used by local officials as trouble-shooters.

The victim, Wei Wenhua, the manager of a construction company, was driving by and stopped to film the confrontation on his mobile phone.

When Mr Wei refused the Chengguan's demands to delete the footage, he was beaten to death on the spot, according to witnesses cited by Xinhua news agency.

Five villagers were also injured in the incident, of whom three remain in hospital, Xinhua reported.

I venture guess that the USA, the EU and the UN won't be making much of a fuss. After all Beijing has threatened to use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Just another day in the New Old China.

Previous posts on China here.


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Fidel's running? Yeah, right, whatever...

A week ago, while looking at the "Castro hints at retirement" news, I said, "Don't count on that anytime soon."

Yesterday this popped up in the news,
Raul Castro Seeks Support for Fidel Bid

HAVANA (AP) - Raul Castro said Monday that Communist Party leaders support his brother Fidel's re-election to parliament, saying he is exercising two hours daily and gaining weight while keeping his mind healthy with reading and writing.

A seat in parliament is the first step in a process that would allow Fidel to retain his post atop the Council of State, Cuba's supreme governing body.

Communist Party leaders ``defend him running again'' Raul Castro said of his brother's candidacy for re-election to the Cuba's National Assembly, or parliament, on Jan. 20.

And this, Castro 'well enough for election'

The "possible run" is discussed as if the Cuban public had any say in it:

Speaking of Cuba's electoral system, Raul Castro noted that U.S. democracy pits two identical parties against one another, and joked that a choice between a Republican and Democrat is like choosing between himself and his brother Fidel.

"We could say in Cuba we have two parties: one led by Fidel and one led by Raul, what would be the difference?" he asked. "That's the same thing that happens in the United States ... both are the same. Fidel is a little taller than me, he has a beard and I don't."

Henry has the The Lemming Report on Media Metooishness (emphasis added):

Today we'll be touching on the topic of fidel and his possible "run" for president in Cuba's sham elections. Cuba is a communist state where only one political party is legal. There is virtually no division between the communist party and the Cuban government. As a result voters have a choice of exactly one candidate for each and every position they "vote" for. raul castro, tyrant Jr., even joked about this recently. The international news media never notes these facts when it produces a story about Cuba. To an uninformed observer Cuba is a functioning democracy.

Just chalk it up to more Associated Press Deficit Disorder: it fits the narrative.



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Bloggers United for Cuban Liberty

Today is International Human Rights Day.
BUCL.org Joins Dr. Darsi Ferrer to Protest Apartheid-Like Policies in Cuba.
Protest marches are scheduled Monday December 10 in Havana and cities around the world

Bloggers United for Cuban Liberty (BUCL) extends its support and solidarity to the Cuban Dissident Dr. Darsi Ferrer on International Human Rights Day Monday, December 10. To commemorate this day, protest marches are being held to denounce what protestors are calling the immoral and illegal segregationist policies imposed by the Cuban government.

"In Cuba, apartheid is not racial, but political," says Henry Gomez of BUCL. “The political system keeps foreigners and Cubans separate. For instance, many public accommodations that are open to tourists and high-level Communist bureaucrats are off limits to everyday Cubans.”

Protest marches will be held in Havana at the park on Calzada between D and E (Vedado), in Miami at the Graham Center at Florida International University (FIU), and in Los Angeles at 202 West First Street. The marches will begin at 11:00 am EST (8:00 am PST). For information on other marches, visit http://BUCL.org.

Basta de apartheid en Cuba has information on the demonstrations, which will take place in Miami, New York, San Juan, Seville and Madrid.

I am honored to be among the Bloggers United for Cuban Liberty. Here are the other sponsoring blogs:
Blog for Cuba
The Real Cuba
Claudia4Libertad
Uncommon Sense
Alberto de la Cruz
Cuba Companioni
jluix
Ninety miles away...in another country
Penultimos dias
La Contra Revolucion
Cambio bracelet website
Wesco
Babalu Blog
Cuban American pundits


We are wearing white bracelets with the word "CAMBIO" (change) in solidarity with the event.

Much more at Babalu.


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More blogging later.

One big "Por que no te callas?": Venezuela Hands Narrow Defeat to Chavez Plan

UPDATED
I signed off early last night and woke up this morning to this good news!The people have come through:
They have told Chavez that he is not invincible

Simon Romero of the NYT: Venezuela Hands Narrow Defeat to Chavez Plan

Voters in this country narrowly defeated a proposed overhaul to the constitution in a contentious referendum over granting President Hugo Chavez sweeping new powers, the Election Commission announced early Monday.

An opposition group celebrated after the referendum. Venezuela had remained on edge since polls closed Sunday afternoon and the wait for results began. More Photos >
It was the first major electoral defeat in the nine years of his presidency. Voters rejected the 69 proposed amendments 51 to 49 percent.

The political opposition erupted into celebration, shooting fireworks into the air and honking car horns, when electoral officials announced the results at 1:20 a.m. The nation had remained on edge since polls closed Sunday afternoon and the wait for results began.

The outcome is a stunning development in a country where Mr. Chávez and his supporters control nearly all of the levers of power. Almost immediately after the results were broadcast on state television, Mr. Chavez conceded defeat, describing the results as a "photo finish."

Hugo is losing his constituency:

Turnout in some poor districts was unexpectedly low, indicating that even the president’s backers were willing to follow him only so far.

The economy is in ruins:

Uncertainty over Mr. Chavez's reforms, meanwhile, has led to accelerating capital flight as rich Venezuelans and private companies rush to buy assets abroad denominated in dollars or euros. The currency, the bolívar, currently trades at about 6,100 to the dollar in street trading, compared with an official rate of 2,150.

Venezuela's state-controlled oil industry is also showing signs of strain, grappling with a purge of opposition management by Mr. Chavez and a retooling of the state oil company to focus on social welfare projects while aging oil fields need maintenance.

Petróleos de Venezuela, the state oil company, says it produces 3.3 million barrels a day, but OPEC places its output at just 2.4 million barrels. And private economists estimate that a third of oil production goes to meet domestic consumption, which is surging because of a subsidy that keeps gasoline prices at about seven cents a gallon.

Hell No!...it's OFFICIAL!

Quico says: Venezuela rejects authoriarianism. It's a historic day. The myth of Chávez-the-invincible is no more.

NO 51%
SI 49%

Thanks to everyone for your support. The road back to something like a real democracy will be long, but at least we're on it now!

Gina Cobb:

I give partial credit to Spain's King Juan Carlos for helping to tip the margin of victory to the opposition. While it probably was not his intent to rally opposition to Chavez, when King Juan Carlos said "Why don't you shut up?" to Hugo Chavez, he was heard around the world.

Chavez defeated over reform vote

"Venezuela won today, democracy won today, and I am sure that this victory for the Venezuelan people will have a very important impact in the rest of Latin America," Leopoldo Lopez, opposition mayor of Caracas' Chaqua municipality, told the BBC.

This is a most significant event in the history of Latin America.

Chavez is not done, but for the first time in nine years he has been defeated at the very polls he has manipulated so often.

I don't know what comes next, but for now, it's good to see him sweat:


Update:
Welcome, Instapundit readers! Please listen to last night's podcast on the Venezuelan referendum, and visit this week's Carnival of Latin America and the Caribbean

GM Roper has the photoshop.
Wretchard's commenters started off the wrong foot.
¡Gloria al Bravo Pueblo!
Ed Morrisey asks,Chavez loses - but does that vindicate him?

Having expressed those limits, does this election vindicate Chavez? If the results stand, has he not shown himself bound by the electoral process and therefore no dictator? Chavez almost had a no-lose situation in this sense; if he won the referendum, he'd get even more power thrust into his hands by popular acclaim, and if he lost, he'd prove himself a democrat, at least for now. The only way he could lose is if he claimed victory in a tight election, as everyone would have assumed he manipulated it.

The important calculation for Chavez is not a single data point -- one election -- but the thrust of his policy over the long term. He has shut down media outlets critical of his rule. He has nationalized industries. Chavez regularly sings the praises of Fidel Castro and makes no secret of his plans to turn Venezuela into a Socialist state using Cuba as a model. If he is not in fact a dictator at the moment, thanks to the momentary intervention of the Venezuelan people, he certainly aspires to that status. And the Venezuelan people need to keep him from realizing that goal.

Chavez should worry about this, too. The blinders are off, and Venezuelans have decided to push back against the creeping dictatorship. Chavez can't bully them into compliance, and anti-Americanism has reached its limit. Does he have any other tricks in his bag?

Dan Riehl posts about the fireworks in San Felipe.

Update 2:
Did Juan Carlos help defeat Hugo Chavez?
Venezuela votes NO
The Limits of 21st-Century Revolution

Update 3
No!
Interesting news from around the Web
Surprise; Chavez loses constitutional reform

Welcome, Weekly Standard readers! Please visit often.

Update 4
Venezuela: the loser (and the winner) is—Chavez!
Don't miss Rick Moran's excellent post, too.

Update, Tuesday December 4:
Via commenter Elmondo, On Chavez and Laughland

Who is Raul Baduel?



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Countdown to Tyranny: The day before the vote

Updates below
In today's headlines, Chavez Threatens US Oil Supply and is sending troops to "protect" the country's oil fields, while declaring the opposition a CIA operation.

As it turns out, Stan Goff at the Huffington Post swallowed the fake CIA memo story whole, hook, line and sinker. Of course - at least according to Stan - the Venezuelan "government was democratically elected (unlike our own)".

Yesterday I posted about the Chavista propaganda surge, which has come in the midst of more unfavorable poll numbers. I wasn't the only one noticing: Juan Forero of the WaPo reports, Chavez Bluster Surges Ahead of Referendum. Some Observers Link Talk to Tight Contest

On the eve of a referendum that President Hugo Chávez has cast as a plebiscite on his rule, the populist leader is escalating his verbal assaults on foes real and imagined, picking a fight with neighboring Colombia one day and assailing Catholic Church leaders as "mental retards" the next.
...
"He's decided that his best tactic to recover the control of his movement is to instill fear in his people that there's a world conspiracy against Venezuela," said Demetrio Boersner, a political analyst and former diplomat. "It's a tactic that uses histrionics as a weapon to unite the people so they vote for him on Sunday."

In addition to threatening to cut the US oil supply, calling the troops, and getting into fights with neighbors and Church, he's also threatening to throw out CNN (which earlier this week Hugo had been accusing of instigating his murder).

I'm not sure why William Ratlieff's article only shows up on Trinidad News, since apparently TN got it from AP/WaPo, but here it is in its entirety:

How the vote can fool Venezuela
On Sunday, Venezuelans will be asked to vote on a whopping 69 constitutional amendments that would greatly reduce the country's democratic governance, strip citizens of still more individual liberties and thus expand President Hugo Chavez's power even beyond what it is today.

The sad reality is that voters will probably approve the amendments, as Chavez's opponents have been bumbling around, discredited, disorganised and intimidated.

The vote will be bad not only for Venezuela, but for the rest of Latin America. Chavez-style demagogues -"Chavistas"-are taking control throughout the region, persuading frustrated voters to jettison their often unresponsive democratic governments for the promise of something better, even if that something is a populist dictatorship.

Chavez already has assumed some of the powers he wants legitimised in the upcoming referendum. Approving the changes will merely legalise what is already in place and further reduce the options and safeguards available to those who disagree with him and his vision of "21st-century socialism."

One of the most disturbing ballot items would allow Chavez to run for president as often as he wishes and make it more difficult for voters to recall a president. He could become, in effect, president for life.

Other ballot items would give Chavez greatly expanded control over the country's state and regional governments, its central bank and its international monetary reserves, and would extend his authority to expropriate private property.

Other ballot measures would increase presidential authority to declare and maintain a "state of emergency" for as long as the government deems necessary and significantly curtail the financial privileges of human-rights groups, the media and other non governmental watchdog organisations.

Still another dangerous ballot item would transform Venezuela's military from a conventional armed force intended to protect the people into a "patriotic and anti-imperialist" armed force intended to support the socialist revolution.

Why would Venezuelans vote to curtail their own liberties?

First, because the people remember that previous governments failed to serve popular interests, while Chavez promises them perks, such as six-hour workdays and redress of their grievances against domestic and foreign oppressors, including the United States.

Self-destructive voting also can be understood in the context of the region's centuries-old Indian-Iberian culture, which historically stresses a paternalistic relationship between rulers and people, even if this paternalism in reality serves the wishes of the few over the needs of the many.

Today, Chavez has vast oil revenues, however badly managed, with which to fund popular programmes and finance his country's deteriorating economy and rampant corruption. In time, those who support Chavez will learn that his socialism is nothing but a rehash of the elite-serving stingy populism of the past. But with oil prices still rising, that day of reckoning may be years away.

There is one decisive difference between the democracy that opened the door to Chavez and the new system Chavez is building. While the former increasingly failed many in the country, its leaders could be-and finally were-voted out of power in reasonably honest, contested elections.

By the time Chavez's supporters realise they have been sold a bill of goods, they may find themselves living under a system that allows no more freedom to choose than Fidel Castro has allowed in Cuba over the last half-century.

The Venezuelan experience demonstrates clearly that when voters' perspectives are incomplete and their passions are ripe for manipulation, popular democracy may not serve their interests, but may lead to their virtual enslavement.

Venezuelans can still block this steamroller by rejecting the reforms. If they don't, by the time they wake up, it may be too late.

Ratliff is a research fellow at the Independent Institute in Oakland, Calif., and at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

Donald Rumsfeld, in tomorrow's Washington Post, says that the best way to beat tyrants like Chavez is through free trade, the creation of a 21st-century "U.S. Agency for Global Communications" to inform, to educate and to compete in the struggle of ideas, strengthening NATO through building bilateral and regional partnerships with other like-thinking countries -- such as India, Singapore, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Israel, and by realizing that complacent assumption that our domestic and global institutions, in their present form, can meet these growing menaces are inadequate to the task.

Meanwhile, The People's Voice is nearly orgasmic with praise for Hugo:

A negative vote (or a successful US-backed civil-military uprising) will reverse the most promising living experience of popular self-rule, of advanced social welfare and democratically based socialism.

Too bad they didn't bother reading what the constitutional ammendments are about. They would have realized that Hugo's promise of 43 more years of rule (when he would turn 96) is not an empty threat.
-------------------------------------------------------
Humor:
Leave it to ScrappleFace: Hugo Chávez Alleges Conspiracy to Make Him Paranoid
-------------------------------------------------------
Reminder:
Dr. Luis Fleischman will be my guest at 6PM Eastern next Sunday, December 2, the day of the referendum, to talk about the day's events.
Join us!


Countdown to Tyranny:
Friday
Thursday
Wednesday

Update:
Ben Whitford:

Eying Chavez's achievements after a decade in power, it's easy to share in Bolívar's frustration. The former paratrooper's vision of a new Venezuela remains as distant as the general's dream of a united continent. Meanwhile, the optimism that accompanied Chávez's meteoric rise is long gone. Instead of bringing revolutionary change, his Fifth Republic has merely swapped the old oligarchy for an equally corrupt Bolivarian bourgeoisie.

Along the way, his administration has embezzled or squandered vast oil revenues; alienated businesses, the media, the middle classes and a broad tract of the political left; systematically eroded checks and balances; and replaced civil discourse with a dangerous and jingoistic militarism. Price fixing has led to chronic food shortages; a vast chain of workers' cooperatives remain stuck in neutral; currency controls and nationalisation have driven away foreign investment; economic mismanagement has raised the spectre of runaway inflation; and a chronic lack of transparency has fostered a culture of corruption and unaccountability.

Unable to solve these problems, Chavez has returned to Bolivar for inspiration; like his hero, he's sought to amass ever more power around the executive, shoring up his own rule even as the ideological edifice upon which it was founded atrophies.

Welcome, Protein Wisdom and Guardian readers! Please visit often.



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Countdown to Tyranny: Last-minute Chavista Propaganda Offensive

As I write this I received an email from one of my contacts telling me the contact's son was beaten by the police during a demonstration.


Two days before the constitutional referendum, the Chavista propaganda machine goes into full offense:

First, the Reuters "facts":
Gustavo Coronel debunks Five Reuters "facts" about Chavez:

"Chavez has won the backing of the poor majority with massive social spending that has expanded health and education programs. He has also cultivated support by openly confronting the United States..."

This is a dangerous "truth". Chavez has not engaged in structural health and education programs. He has spent billions of dollars in massive handouts, not to be confused with plans to attack the structural roots of poverty, illness and ignorance. He distributes fish but does not teach the people to fish. As a result poor Venezuelans are more dependent than ever on the paternalistic, populist and vindictive leader. The entire health, educational and commerce infrastructure has been decimated due to incompetence and corruption. The state of the most major hospitals is deplorable and thousands of patients are flown every year to be operated in Venezuelan funded hospitals in Cuba. Chavez' support domestically has not been increased by his attacks on the U.S. In fact, most Venezuelans reject those attacks, as shown by all credible polls.

Read the rest.

Chavez is doing the old "Blame the CIA" game to distract from the missing electoral observers:
I posted about the blame game this morning; in the same article, Simon Romero in the NYT points out that no electoral observers are invited to the referendum.

Both Mr. Chavez, a self-described socialist who has won elections by wide margins, and his critics say opinion polls show they will prevail, suggesting a highly contentious outcome. But departing from its practice in last year's presidential election, Venezuela did not invite electoral observers from the Organization of American States and the European Union, opening the government to claims of fraud if he wins.

Violence has already marred the weeks preceding the vote. Two students involved in anti-government protests claimed they had been kidnapped and tortured this week by masked men in Barquisimeto, an interior city. And in Valencia, another city, a supporter of Mr. Chavez was shot dead this week in an exchange of gunfire at a protest site.

Gateway Pundit comments,

The New York Times insists that the regime is still some sort of a legitimate democracy. (Healthy democracies don't generally hold elections to give one person abolute power.) However, the Times does at least recognize that Chavez is having some problems controlling the momentum against his referendum on absolute power.

Additionally, the Chavista propaganda wants to portray him as the only hope for the FARC hostages:
As readers of this blog know, Ingrid Betancourt is the Colombian-French politican that was kidnapped in 2002. The French government (which under de Villepin had sent a plane to the jungle searching for her) has been pressuring Colombia's Uribe to negotiate with the FARC for her release. Uribe agreed but after it became evident that Chavez was in cohoots with the FARC, Chavez was fired.

The Economist:

Mr Uribe may reckon that a few insults are a price worth paying for ending a venture that seemed certain to provide political gains for Mr Chávez and the FARC but looked unlikely to free all the hostages—if any.

Now A colombo-americana's perspective has a post on the latest video released of FARC hostage Ingrid Betancourt:

Proof of FARC captives' survival
The Venezuelan media opine, and --surprise, surprise-- the plot thickens. (Video included.) "Información de inteligencia indica que el destinatario de estas pruebas era Hugo Chávez y que iba a recibir la encomienda antes del domingo." ("Intelligence information indicates that the proof of life were to be given to Hugo Chávez, and that he was to receive them prior to Sunday's vote." My translation.) From the Venezuelan daily El Nacional, Betancourt's mother Yolando Pulecio says the proof was to be delivered to Colombian senator Piedad Córdoba.

While The Economist says that

The referendum may be decided by how many Venezuelans bother to vote. Those in the opposition who called for abstention in past elections (claiming that the electoral authority was not impartial) have this time called on their supporters to vote, whereas in the chavista camp, there are signs of apathy. How widespread this proves to be may determine whether or not Venezuela remains a democracy.

I am very pessimistic and share A Second Hand Conjecture opinion that " have zero confidence that the referendum will result in anything other than what Chavez wants (i.e. dictatorial control)." Gustavo Coronel, writing at NRO states that

the Chavez government has already printed, at significant expense, some eight million copies of the "new" constitution, one that has not yet been approved and could well be rejected.

Citizen Feathers has An utterly grim view of the future of Venezuela, too.

I hope we're wrong.
-------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday's countdown

Reminder:
Dr. Luis Fleischman will be my guest at 6PM Eastern next Sunday, December 2, the day of the referendum, to talk about the day's events.
Join us!




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Venezuela: Today's Countdown to Tyranny

At AgoraVox (in French) La nouvelle constitution vénézuélienne : la réinvention de l’autocratie The New Venezuelan Constitution: Re-inveting autocracy?), by Daniel Duquenal, who is urging people to vote.

Today there's a huge demonstration in Caracas and Miguel is there taking pictures, which Daniel's posting.

At the Washington Post, Juan Forero writes about Old Allies Abandon Chávez as Constitution Vote Nears

But Martínez and a handful of others who once were prominent pillars in the Chávez machine, have defected, saying approval of 69 constitutional changes would effectively turn Venezuela into a dictatorship run at the whim of one man. They have been derided by Chávez as traitors, but their unimpeachable leftist credentials have given momentum to a movement that pollsters say may deliver Chavez his first electoral defeat.

"The proposal would signify a coup d'etat," said Martínez, 58, whose dapper appearance belies his history as a guerrilla and Communist Party member. "Here the power is going to be concentrated in one person. That's very grave."

Pollsters in Caracas say Venezuelans increasingly agree -- even those who continue to support the president but say the proposed overhaul of an eight-year-old constitution goes too far.

Among them abandoning Chavez is Juan Forero himself, along with over 100 individuals and institutions from across Latin America who signed this statement supporting the people of Venezuela in their struggle for democracy:

la pretendida reforma constitucional aludida no sería más que un golpe de Estado ejecutado por medios aparentemente democráticos. Esto constituye un acto más de la nueva modalidad asumida por gobiernos de corte autoritario y populista en Latinoamérica, de apelar a medios ofrecidos por la democracia, para subvertirla hasta hacerla irreconocible.
(my translation, emphasis added)
The purported constitutional reform is nothing more than a coup d'etat carried out through apparently democratic means. This constitutes one more step in the new strategy adopted by Latin American governments cut in the authoritarian and populist mode, through which they go through democratic processes until democracy is subverted to the point where it's made unrecognizable.

Venezuelan students continue to be at the forefront of the protests. NeoNeocon posts about it (emphasis added):

The students of Venezuela may not be able to buck the tide in Venezuela, especially if the election is rigged. It is my sincere hope that they do, though, or Venezuela may end up like Cuba, waiting patiently for their ancient Dictator for Life to finally kick the bucket.

In the latest news, Venezuela Opposition Group Reverses Call on Ballot Abstention

The CNR, in a statement posted to its Web site, said a massive voter turnout would defeat the Dec. 2 initiative to approve 69 changes to the constitution enlarging Chavez's power. Abstention will increase chances of its passage, local pollster Datanalisis said this month.

Countdown continues tomorrow.

More at the Center for Security Policy.

Update
Welcome Michelle Malkin readers! Please read Countdown to Tyranny: Last-minute Chavista Propaganda Offensive
-------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday's countdown


Reminder:
Dr. Luis Fleischman will be my guest at 6PM Eastern next Sunday, December 2, the day of the referendum, to talk about the day's events.
Join us!



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