A brief post on tomorrow's Spanish general election
Two days before the general election, ETA murders a former councilman.Spanish Pundit: ETA killed Isaias Carrasco, former councilman for the Socialists, by shooting him point-blank in front of his family. Spanish Pundit has lots of links at her post.
Iberian Notes explains,
Carrasco had just gotten into his car to go to work at 1:30 PM when the ETA gunman fired five shots at him through the windshield, hitting him in the chest with two and in the neck with one. His wife and daughter heard the gunfire and rushed outside as Carrasco got out of his car, stumbled halfway across the street, and fell, still conscious. The gunman, who was tall, wearing a fake beard, and dressed in black, ran to a silver Seat Cordoba in which a getaway driver was waiting, and they escaped. Carrasco died in the hospital less than an hour later.Gates of Vienna has a Letter from Spain: The E.T.A Steps in Spanish Elections:
Carrasco had lost his city council seat in the last municipal election, and had decided to give up his police bodyguard at the end of last year. Most politically active anti-ETA Basques, especially those who hold public office, need official bodyguards.
The mayor of Mondragón, known in Basque as Arrasate, belongs to the ETA-front party ANV; when she arrived at the hospital, Carrasco's wife told her to get lost.
Let us remember the first rule of Spanish politics: the result of Spanish national elections is determined by the vote of the “volatile left” a group of two million voters that vote for the PSOE, but only when they want to avoid a government by the right. If they vote, the PSOE will get a majority in Parliament and then the government, if they do not, the PP may manage to get the government. This attack will decide this people to vote; therefore it will benefit the PSOE. Moreover, it is also the interest of the ETA to keep the PSOE in government. El Pais (our NYT) has already called their readers to the voting stations in its headlines today.Read the rest: their prognosis is not positive.
Iberian Notes states that the lastest survey shows the PSOE (Zapatero's party) ahead of the PP 43.0% -39.0%.
I'll post on the results tomorrow evening.
UPDATE
Spanish socialists claim victory . Gateway Pundit has roundup.
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posted by Fausta @ 10:18 AM
2 Comments:
I'm a little confused, is this group a swing vote that votes in each election or a bloc that only votes under what they consider the direst of circumstances? I would assume the former as in the US the possibility of the opposition winning usually tends to suppress the vote of those wishing to stymie that change.
Well, yes, it is. They normally are not interested in voting, so they just vote IF something very out-of-ordinary happens. In last general elections, it was the March 11th bombings. Now it is the ETA shooting: only one killed but extremelly efective, because the vote could swing to favour PSOE (Socialists) as the former councilman belongs to that party AND it could just erase the influence the negotiation ETA-Government can have on the voters.
WE will just have to wait.
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